Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 35,724
2 Florida 32,617
3 Mississippi 32,545
4 Alabama 31,065
5 Arizona 29,845
6 South Carolina 28,334
7 Georgia 28,097
8 Tennessee 27,827
9 Iowa 27,455
10 North Dakota 27,198
11 Arkansas 26,920
12 Texas 26,574
13 Nevada 25,589
14 South Dakota 24,349
15 New York 23,663
16 New Jersey 23,118
17 Illinois 22,985
18 Rhode Island 22,826
19 Nebraska 22,778
20 Idaho 22,663
21 Utah 22,026
22 District of Columbia 21,608
23 Oklahoma 21,312
24 Wisconsin 21,038
25 Delaware 20,805
26 California 20,542
27 Missouri 20,501
28 Maryland 20,493
29 Kansas 19,891
30 North Carolina 19,775
31 Massachusetts 18,954
32 Indiana 17,783
33 Minnesota 17,161
34 Virginia 17,121
35 Connecticut 15,871
36 Kentucky 15,754
37 Puerto Rico 14,498
38 New Mexico 13,756
39 Michigan 13,458
40 Ohio 12,901
41 Pennsylvania 12,558
42 Colorado 12,063
43 Washington 11,795
44 Alaska 11,426
45 Montana 11,345
46 Wyoming 9,732
47 Hawaii 8,661
48 West Virginia 8,564
49 Oregon 7,781
50 New Hampshire 6,010
51 Maine 3,933
52 Vermont 2,791

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 556
2 South Dakota 544
3 Wisconsin 443
4 Utah 358
5 Alabama 279
6 Iowa 277
7 Oklahoma 260
8 North Carolina 259
9 Puerto Rico 256
10 Missouri 254
11 Arkansas 242
12 Tennessee 239
13 Montana 232
14 Nebraska 229
15 Minnesota 219
16 South Carolina 205
17 Wyoming 188
18 Idaho 177
19 Illinois 174
20 Kansas 173
21 Mississippi 173
22 Indiana 160
23 Kentucky 160
24 Nevada 160
25 Alaska 156
26 Texas 139
27 Georgia 125
28 West Virginia 119
29 Florida 116
30 Louisiana 116
31 Delaware 107
32 Virginia 103
33 Colorado 99
34 New Mexico 98
35 Maryland 88
36 Ohio 87
37 California 84
38 Hawaii 83
39 Massachusetts 79
40 Oregon 75
41 New Jersey 74
42 District of Columbia 68
43 Michigan 67
44 Pennsylvania 66
45 Arizona 63
46 Washington 53
47 New York 47
48 New Hampshire 31
49 Maine 18
50 Connecticut 10
51 Vermont 9
52 Rhode Island -40

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,813
2 New York 1,682
3 Massachusetts 1,364
4 Connecticut 1,262
5 Louisiana 1,175
6 Rhode Island 1,044
7 Mississippi 980
8 District of Columbia 884
9 Arizona 772
10 Michigan 705
11 Illinois 699
12 Florida 653
13 Delaware 650
14 Maryland 650
15 South Carolina 645
16 Georgia 639
17 Pennsylvania 638
18 Texas 545
19 Indiana 531
20 Nevada 514
21 Alabama 510
22 Arkansas 433
23 Iowa 417
24 New Mexico 414
25 Ohio 405
26 California 395
27 Virginia 370
28 Minnesota 365
29 Colorado 355
30 Missouri 344
31 Tennessee 344
32 North Carolina 329
33 New Hampshire 322
34 North Dakota 307
35 Washington 288
36 Kentucky 266
37 Idaho 257
38 Oklahoma 254
39 Nebraska 250
40 South Dakota 246
41 Wisconsin 221
42 Kansas 218
43 Puerto Rico 201
44 West Virginia 186
45 Montana 161
46 Utah 141
47 Oregon 130
48 Maine 104
49 Hawaii 92
50 Vermont 92
51 Wyoming 86
52 Alaska 71

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 8
2 Arkansas 6
3 Mississippi 5
4 Alaska 4
5 Florida 3
6 Georgia 3
7 Louisiana 3
8 Missouri 3
9 South Carolina 3
10 South Dakota 3
11 Tennessee 3
12 Arizona 2
13 Massachusetts 2
14 Montana 2
15 Nevada 2
16 North Carolina 2
17 Oklahoma 2
18 Texas 2
19 California 1
20 Delaware 1
21 District of Columbia 1
22 Hawaii 1
23 Illinois 1
24 Indiana 1
25 Iowa 1
26 Kentucky 1
27 Maryland 1
28 Minnesota 1
29 Nebraska 1
30 New Mexico 1
31 Puerto Rico 1
32 Virginia 1
33 West Virginia 1
34 Alabama 0
35 Colorado 0
36 Connecticut 0
37 Idaho 0
38 Kansas 0
39 Maine 0
40 Michigan 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New Jersey 0
43 New York 0
44 Ohio 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Pennsylvania 0
47 Rhode Island 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 154,561 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 149,720 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 147,643 3 99
Lafayette Florida 146,402 4 99
Lake Tennessee 131,842 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 41,278 195 93
Richland South Carolina 36,680 270 91
York South Carolina 19,115 1163 62
Orange California 17,249 1336 57
Pierce Washington 9,731 2207 29

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,966 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 577 694 77
Davidson Tennessee 441 969 69
Orange California 383 1108 64
York South Carolina 267 1444 54
Pierce Washington 246 1505 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons